Analysis of Export Development Potentials for Corona-Related Medicinal Products and Medical Equipment to Neighbor Countries

The outbreak of the Covid-19 has created restrictions on the export market of Iranian pharmaceuticals and medical equipment. These restrictions have caused the loss of some markets, on the other hand the production of some pharmaceutical and medical products related to the Covid-19 is in the production program of related companies and due to increasing demand and production scale, a good opportunity Provided to increase quality. In this situation, due to the country's currency restrictions, efforts to export in excess of the consumption of these items in order to maintain production capacity and also increase market share in neighboring countries is important. In this regard, the present report examines and analyzes Iran's export potential to 15 neighbor countries; the summary of the findings is as follows:

1- Global market of pharmaceutical-health products:
These products include 258 items in six-digit HS, exceeding previous expectations and forecasts in 2019, exceeding $ 1,560 billion and reaching about $ 2,000 billion (about 5.2% of total world trade). The global market for Covid-19 related pharmaceuticals includes 92 items (according to six-digit HS codes) equivalent to $ 600 billion, accounting for about 1.7 percent of world trade and 30 percent of global pharmaceuticals.

2- Trade of Iranian pharmaceutical-health products with emphasis on products related to Covid-19:
 The total trade of Iranian pharmaceutical products (in 2017-18) was $ 9.6 billion, of which 60% was related to imports and 40% was related to exports. The total export of Iranian pharmaceutical-health products (187 tariff codes out of 258 tariff codes) was $ 3.7 billion, of which $ 445 million (12%) was related to covid-19 related products (80 tariff lines out of 92 tariff lines). The one percent share of Covid-19 products in non-oil exports and their 4.4 percent share in the country's total imports indicate the high relative importance of these products.
 30% of Iran's trade in Covid-19 related products belongs to neighboring countries; Thus, these countries have a share of about 85% in exports ($ 380 million out of $ 445 million in total exports) and 22% in imports ($ 564 million out of $ 2.5 billion in imports required by Iran). Also, considering Iran's exports of about $ 24 billion to neighboring countries, the share of Covid-19 products is equal to 1.6 percent.
The total import needs of neighboring countries for Covid-19 related pharmaceutical products are about $ 50 billion. Estimates based on 2018 statistical data indicate that Iran's export capacity to neighboring countries is equivalent to $ 445 million (including 76 items) of which about $ 380 million (85% and including 50 items) was realized; On this account, in proportion to the amount of production and exports before the outbreak of the Covid-19 (2018) as well as the demand of trading partners, only $ 57 million (in current goods and 27 items of new goods) remained unused, which is 5 to 10 times higher. Domestic production as well as the import demand of trading partners, the real figure of the export potential of Covid-19 related products is many times the estimated figure.

3- Recommendations and suggestions:
1- The need to pay attention to the durability and survival of pharmaceutical-health products in the markets of neighboring countries.
2- The need to increase the share of production and export of pharmaceutical-health products to drugs and pharmaceutical products.
3- Planning to increase market share in countries with higher standards such as Russia and Turkey
4- Planning to export new products with potential to the market of neighboring countries.
5- In terms of pharmaceutical and health products in the list of preferred items of possible bilateral agreements with neighbor countries.


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