Investigating the effects of coronavirus disease on the world economy and the channels affecting Iranian economy

The COVID-19 pandemic is part of the worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019. The first confirmed case was announced in January 2020 in China. Today, it has spread to more than 200 countries.
Iran has not been immune to its various, especially economic, consequences. According to the report's authors, the disease is one of the causes of exogenous cycles. And like other exogenous cycles created in nature, such as weather and climate conditions, they cause economic cycles. This report studied on aspects of the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy and selected countries (such as Russia, Turkey, Germany, France, the United States and Japan) and Iran. The results are as follows:

  • All regions in 2020, except Africa, the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), suffer from decreasing in exports and imports. This estimated reduction in exports is due to the fact that countries in these regions rely heavily on the export of energy-intensive products, the demand for which is less volatile with fluctuations in prices. In terms of imports, the regions of Africa, the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States predict to fall by 10% to 22.6%.
  • According to the prediction, global GDP will fall between 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent, mainly due to declining demand. The results of a study of the impact of corona on economic growth in countries show that the majority of them are out of recession from the third quarter of 2020.
  • The results of Coronavirus on inflation in selected countries show that during this period, inflation rate in all of them has decreased due to declining demand in the economy. In contrast, changes in food index in all of the countries which are studied here, has increased due to increasing demand for healthcare equipment.
  • The results of this study on the effect of coronavirus on the foreign investment: in selected countries show that according UNCTAD report prediction (March 2020) a sharp drop of 30 to 40 percent is projected for global direct investment flow in 2020-2021. Accordingly, global investment has reached its lowest level in two decades.
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